Calculating Evolt's "Doomsday" This is just a fun calculation of when evolt will have no more submitted articles, based on some statistics developed by Isaac Forman. These calculations are based on the results (as of Jan 2002) of a live graph developed by Isaac Forman. First, we consider the per-year totals:
Note that we can't include the total for 2002 because the year is incomplete. We could estimate the total for 2002 based on the total for the current number of months, but we have enough data so far that we don't really need to add guessing into the mix. Now, we need to calculate the decay rate. This will simply be a percentage less than 100% indicating the ratio between the number of submitted articles of one year and its previous year.
Note that these values are rounded to the nearest percent. Our Now, we need to create a formula to model the number of submitted articles for a given year. We will call this model The general decay formula is: where P is the original amount where r is the rate of decay where d is the number of divisions of time where t is the number of whole time units Here, our Therefore: Now we have a model for the number of articles in year Here, we realize that there is no solution for At 14 years, the rate of submission of articles will be less than 1. We can consider this Evolt's "Doomsday." Find a mistake? Have a better method? Email me. |
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Last Updated on January 01 1970 00:00:00. | dev@mattwarden.com |